由于不同地区社会经济水平，地形构造，资源禀赋等因素差异，对生态环境产生了差异化的影响。量化比较和分析不同地区人为活动与环境响应的关系，将为生态建设和管理决策提供更多的科学支撑。本研究选择中国东南部七个典型的海湾地区，定量分析了社会经济发展与沿海环境质量的关系。根据2007年至2015年的水质数据，应用多元统计法分析潜在的环境风险，并根据环境质量状况对七个海湾进行分类，另外根据面板环境库兹涅茨曲线模型预测了研究区域环境指标的可能变化趋势。结果表明，发展模式不同使七个海湾之间的环境质量差异显著，泉州湾，厦门湾，罗源湾等环境压力严峻，但主要人为干扰严重因素各不相同。该区域社会经济发展水平与一些水质指标（pH，DIN，PO₄-P）大致是正相关的，即人均GDP较高的地区水质指标较差。另外，在可预见的将来，七个海湾的pH值下降趋势和营养盐浓度的上升趋势将会持续。考虑到当前条件下的变化趋势，应实施地区差异性的管理策略，以减轻沿海环境的压力。

       本文相关研究成果于2017年5月发表在环境科学SCI期刊Environmental Science and Pollution Research。

图 1 2007 - 2015福建省七个海湾的水质指标箱线图

Abstract

Regional analysis of environmental issues has always been a hot topic in the field of sustainable development. Because the different levels of economic growth, urbanization, resource endowments, etc. in different regions generate apparently different ecological responses, a better description and comparison across different regions will provide more valuable implications for ecological improvement and policymaking. In this study, seven typical bays in southeast China that are a rapid developing area were selected to quantitatively analyze the relationship between socioeconomic development and coastal environmental quality. Based on the water quality data from 2007 to 2015, the multivariate statistical method was applied to analyze the potential environmental risks and to classify the seven bays based on their environmental quality status. The possible variation trends of environmental indices were predicted based on the crossregional panel data by Environmental Kuznets Curve. The results showed that there were significant regional differences among the seven bays, especially Quanzhou, Xiamen, and Luoyuan Bays, suffered from severer artificial disturbances than other bays, despite their different development patterns. Socioeconomic development level was significantly associated with some water quality indices (pH, DIN, PO₄–P); the association was roughly positive: the areas with higher GDP per capita have some worse water quality indices. In addition, the decreasing trend of pH values and the increasing trend of nutrient concentration in the seven bays will continue in the foreseeable future. In consideration of the variation trends, the limiting nutrient strategy should be implemented to mitigate the deterioration of the coastal environments.