课题组在厦门西海域环境参数长时间序列（1980-2012）的计量分析与管理探究，研究结果表明（1）2008年后DO浓度恢复到1980年代水平，主要是1998 - 2006年新污水处理建设; （2），自20世纪90年代初“工业废水排放许可证”实施以来，溢油来源得到控制，海水中的油浓度减少; （3）如果不能有效地减少酸性气体排放，西海域海水的pH值会降低; （4）自20世纪80年代以来，DIN浓度增加了一倍，PO4-P增加了三倍。根据EKC分析，P限制治理策略（包括自1997年以来废水处理厂升级，自1999年以来禁止含P的洗涤剂，自2002年以来禁止水产养殖活动和疏通渠道）是有效的，并且PO4-P浓度开始下降。相关文章《Quantitative analysis of anthropogenic influences on coastal water – A new perspective》于2016年8月发表于环境2区期刊《Ecological Indicators》。
Abstract: Coastal environment has been disturbed by human activities for a long time, especially in the rapidly urbanizing and industrializing areas. Although the surrounding area has achieved great economic success in the past 30 years, Western Xiamen Bay (China) is seriously affected by pollutants and is facing increasing ecological pressure. Because of this, Xiamen was selected in 1994 as a demonstration site for implementing an integrated coastal management program, which included a series of measures for protecting the coastal environment. However, coastal environment is dynamic, complex and site-specific, and thus a scientific quantitative evaluation framework is necessary for environment quality analysis and effective coastal management. In this study, we used oceanographic knowledge together with quantitative methods (Bai-Perron’s structural break test) to analyze the long-term variations of water quality indices (pH, DO, COD, DIN, PO4-P and Oil) in Western Xiamen Bay. In addition, we compared with other coastal areas to identify the effectiveness of phosphorus-based nutrient management measures and predicted the probable variation trend in the future. The results show that in Western Xiamen Bay: (1) the concentrations of DO and Oil in seawater are effectively controlled by local coastal management measures; (2) seawater acidification will continue to worsen based on the present situation; and (3) the P-limitation treatment strategies are effective and PO4-P concentration starts to fall according to the multiple statistical analysis and Environmental Kuznets Curve. This paper hopes to provide an epitome of the conflicts and consolations between socioeconomic development and environmental quality in the past, and hints for coastal management in the future.
